Note 6: Participation and Enrolment

This post is part of a week-long series.

In February 2007, Millennium issued a report that argued post-secondary enrolment would decline in Canada unless participation of under-represented youth was improved. The review sparked some controversy, causing Millennium to revisit the report and examine the latest research. This Note documents their findings.

A study released by the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada (Trends in Higher Education, Volume 1) projected a growth in enrolment in Canada, seeming to counter Millennium's projections. However, the reports agreed on three fundamental points.

First, they both accept Statistics Canada’s population estimates, which show that, after 2016, the number of young adults in Canada will be lower than it is today. Second, they both argue that, in view of this decrease, continued growth in the number of post-secondary students depends upon an increase in the participation rate. Third, they both agree that such a growth in the participation rate must occur if Canada is to produce the type of educated and skilled workforce needed to remain competitive and prosperous in the global knowledge economy.

The remaining difference, then, is whether or not we'll see participation increase. Millennium argues that the participation rate will not rise sinificantly if the children of well-educated or well-off parents enrol in greater numbers. Instead, we must make gains among those whose parents did not attend university, who earn lower incomes, or who are Aboriginal. And these gains will not occur on their own.

Why Access Matters argues that increasing the participation of under-represented populations is unlikely to occur automatically, without governments and universities preparing to meet the needs of a changing student body and putting in place an adequate system of student support—financial aid, academic support services and specialized student services.

Millennium also takes a look at how the job market can affect enrolment. They note that, on the one hand, lucrative jobs are likely to lure prospective students from university, while on the other, there is a need for more education among new workers to meet the demands of the economy. However, it is also noted that many individuals who decided not to pursue higher education are more likely to return if the economy "cools down."

And with the economy having cooled down by now, in conjunction with the fact that Alberta is maintaining its youth population, it does not seem likely that enrolment will drop any time soon. Given this, one must ask if university and government officials will be feeling the pressure to improve access to under-privileged youth.

If not, what will this mean to our already-inequitable participation rate?

In 2003, 46.4% of 19-year-olds from the highest income quartile had pursued some university studies, almost double the 25.4% from the lowest income quartile.

To read the full Note, please visit the Millennium website.